Dynamics of multimorbidity in England between 2004 and 2019: a descriptive epidemiology study

Abstract

Abstract Background An estimated 25% of GP patients within the UK have multimorbidity, a large proportion of which is attributable to non-communicable diseases, many of them preventable. The heterogeneity of existing study methodologies limits comparisons to assess temporal trends. This study aims to use a large population-representative dataset to describe changes over time in multimorbidity incidence and prevalence. Methods We used two measures of multimorbidity a) basic: two or more chronic conditions; b) complex: at least three chronic conditions affecting at least three body systems. Chronic conditions for inclusion were discussed by a multidisciplinary team. A 1m random sample of patients registered between 2004 and 2019 at GP practices in England were drawn from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We calculated crude and age-sex standardised annual multimorbidity prevalence and incidence using standard formulae. Analyses were conducted using R v3.6.3. Participants will be linked to the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation to describe equity trends over time. Results Preliminary results show that age-sex standardised annual prevalence increased from 32.9% (95% CI: 32.7% - 33.1%) with basic multimorbidity and 14.9% (95% CI: 14.7%-15.0%) with complex multimorbidity in 2004 to 51.0% (95% CI: 50.8% - 51.3%) and 29.9% (95% CI: 29.7% - 30.1%) in 2019. Basic multimorbidity incidence per 10,000 person-years showed little change, however there was an increase in the incidence of complex multimorbidity from 322 (95% CI: 315- 330) to 418 (95% CI: 407 - 430). Conclusions The burden of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the last 15 years. Complex multimorbidity incidence and prevalence have increased more rapidly than for basic multimorbidity. This highlights the need for improved population-level prevention strategies to postpone and prevent the onset of long-term conditions. Next, we will assess whether there are socioeconomic differences in these temporal trends. Key messages The burden of multimorbidity increased between 2004 and 2019. The increase in incidence and prevalence of complex multimorbidity was greater than for basic multimorbidity.