Dynamics of morbidity and mortality from cancer in Gomel region: statistical analysis and forecast using ARIMA model up to 2030

Abstract

Objective. To analyze the time series of morbidity and mortality from breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and cervical cancer in Gomel region for the period from 1982 to 2022 using ARIMA method and to make a prediction up to 2030. Materials and methods. We analyzed morbidity and mortality data from these cancers using statistical methods, including ARIMA modeling. Data on age at diagnosis, stage of disease, percentages of cancer detected at different stages, percentages of mortality and its dynamics after diagnosis were used. Results. On the basis of data analysis using ARIMA model, a model for predicting the incidence of cancer in the near future was developed. According to the forecast, it should be expected that there will be an increase in the incidence of breast, prostate, cervical and colorectal cancer until 2030, a decrease in the age of patients at first detection, a change in the pattern of detection at different stages and an increase in the percentage of disease detection in preventive examinations. Mortality from these types of cancer is projected to increase, with some changes in the average age of patientsof death indicators and stage dynamics. Conclusion. Predicting cancer incidence and mortality rates emphasizes the need for increased screening and early diagnosis of malignant neoplasms. This can improve earlier detection of the disease and increase the effectiveness of treatment, reducing overall cancer mortality.