Dynamics of mitigation measures in urbanizing Africa: Challenges and opportunities for future climate change

Abstract

Africa stands at a critical crossroads, grappling with the complex interplay between global climate targets and urbanization dynamics. The rapid growth of urban populations coupled with unsustainable urban planning practices exacerbates inherent conflicts, impeding our collective efforts to mitigate carbon emissions. In this context, we systematically decompose the key demographic, economic, and technological drivers of emissions, evaluating their contributions and spatial variations within African city boundaries from 2000 to 2020. By integrating three shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP119, SSP245, SSP434) and two urbanization strategies (i.e., linear and urbanization-led), we aim to assess the disparities in carbon mitigation outcomes that correspond to varying urban development trajectories by the year 2060, all while adhering to the same climate targets. Our findings reveal that the pursuit of urbanization may result in a substantial reduction in carbon mitigation efforts, with potential reductions ranging from 34% to a staggering 95%. In the "Middle Road" scenario (SSP434), we posit that land productivity must witness an increase of 26%–46% to attain mitigation outcomes comparable to those achieved through a linear trajectory. This implies that the concurrent efforts to urbanize and mitigate carbon emissions may narrow disparities among cities, limiting diversity of existing mitigation measures. The proactive planning of sustainable urban clusters and the provision of localized subsidies for clean energy are imperative to fortify urban climate resilience.