Abstract
Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) colonizes livestock animals worldwide, especially pigs and calves. Although frequently carried asymptomatically, LA-MRSA can cause severe infections in humans. It is therefore important to better understand LA-MRSA spreading dynamics within pig farms and over pig movement networks, and to compare different strategies of control and surveillance. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic meta-population model of LA-MRSA spread along the French pig movement network (n = 10,542 farms), combining within- and between-farm dynamics, based on detailed data on breeding practices and pig movements between holdings. We calibrate the model using French epidemiological data. We then identify farm-level factors associated with the spreading potential of LA-MRSA in the network. We also show that, assuming control measures applied in a limited (n = 100) number of farms, targeting farms depending on their centrality in the network is the only way to significantly reduce LA-MRSA global prevalence. Finally, we investigate the scenario of emergence of a new LA-MRSA strain, and find that the farms with the highest indegree would be the best sentinels for a targeted surveillance of such a strain’s introduction.
Highlights
Livestock farms are often at high epidemiological risk, in particular farms with a dense animal population (Meadows et al, 2018)
This resulted in 10,542 farms, which is consistent with the number of active nodes in the French pig industry identified in Salines et al (2017)
We propose a mathematical model combining the within-farm and the between-farm levels to simulate the spread of Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in an intensive pig production system such as the French pig industry
Summary
Livestock farms are often at high epidemiological risk, in particular farms with a dense animal population (Meadows et al, 2018). Disease spread control in livestock populations is a challenge for animal health and welfare (Broom and Corke, 2002), as well as for farmers in terms of economic and livelihood loss due to productivity drops (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017). It may be a concern for human health in the case of zoonotic diseases (Jones et al, 2008). The major impact of pig movements on the spread dynamics of LA-MRSA between farms has been underlined (Broens et al, 2011; Espinosa-Gongora et al, 2012; Sieber et al, 2018)
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