Abstract
Deforestation in the Amazon has reached alarming numbers in recent decades. The main factors causing this issue are not only large and medium-sized farmers, land grabbing, and illegal mining but also agrarian reform settlements, which may be contributing to the increase in deforestation rates. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the dynamics of land use in the rural settlement Santo Antônio do Matupi, located in the south of the State of Amazonas. This time-series study analyzed changes in land use and land cover from 1992 to 2018 using supervised classification techniques. In this scenario, simulations were carried out of the dynamics of land use for the period between 2028 and 2038 using the cellular automaton method of Markov (CAMARKOV). The results show that, in the studied period, the greatest losses were in primary forests and that the most critical period of deforestation rates recorded was from 2004 to 2018 when 63.28% of the area was converted into pastures. Future scenarios based on the period studied indicate losses of up to 5.26% of areas occupied by forests by 2028, and a further 5.60% by 2038, exceeding 80% of the total area deforested in the settlement. This study demonstrates that the current model of land use and occupation practiced in the settlement is unsustainable and that future scenarios are worrying. This situation highlights a need to effectively implement programs that aim a sustainable rural development in the settlement, in addition to monitoring and controlling deforestation, designed for current managers and other sectors of the society concerned with the conservation and preservation of forests.
Highlights
The creation of the National Plan for Agrarian Reform (PNRA), under decree no. 91.766 of October 10, 1985, has driven the colonization of the Amazon region in Brazil
The tendency is that the increase in deforestation continues in the coming years mainly in the region located in the “Arc of Deforestation,” which comprises the western part of the State of Acre, the southern Amazon and Pará, northern Rondônia, and Mato Grosso, in addition to the area of transition from the State of Pará to Rondônia and Maranhão (Carvalho and Domingues, 2016; Tollefson, 2018)
Deforestation rates (Figure 4B) did not follow the same trends observed for other regions of the Amazon
Summary
The creation of the National Plan for Agrarian Reform (PNRA), under decree no. 91.766 of October 10, 1985, has driven the colonization of the Amazon region in Brazil. Current data show that more than 87 million hectares have been demarcated in rural settlements, of which 80.23% are located inside the Legal Amazon (Brasil, 2020a). The Amazon has been losing a large part of its native vegetation cover due to several factors, such as disordered exploitation of wood and deforestation to benefit the agricultural sector (Congilio and Moraes, 2016; Duarte et al, 2020; Rossoni and Moraes, 2020). Studies have indicated that large and medium-sized farmers contribute the most to deforestation activities in the Amazon (Walker et al, 2013; Fearnside, 2017). Some studies have shown that deforestation in rural settlements may be contributing significantly to deforestation in locations where settlements are concentrated (Farias et al, 2018; Duarte et al, 2020)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
