Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease or COVID-19 is still posing an alarming situation around the globe. The whole world is facing the second wave of this novel pandemic. Recently, the researchers are focused to study the complex dynamics and possible control of this global infection. Mathematical modeling is a useful tool and gains much interest in this regard. In this paper, a fractional-order transmission model is considered to study its dynamical behavior using the real cases reported in Saudia Arabia. The classical Caputo type derivative of fractional order is used in order to formulate the model. The transmission of the infection through the environment is taken into consideration. The documented data since March 02, 2020 up to July 31, 2020 are considered for estimation of parameters of system. We have the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) for the data is 1.2937. The Banach fixed point analysis has been used for the existence and uniqueness of the solution. The stability analysis at infection free equilibrium and at the endemic state are presented in details via a nonlinear Lyapunov function in conjunction with LaSalle Invariance Principle. An efficient numerical scheme of Adams-Molten type is implemented for the iterative solution of the model, which plays an important role in determining the impact of control measures and also sensitive parameters that can reduce the infection in the general public and thereby reduce the spread of pandemic as shown graphically. We present some graphical results for the model and the effect of the important sensitive parameters for possible infection minimization in the population.
Highlights
The fatal disease called a coronavirus (COVID-19) has grown beyond the expectation of everyone and seems to stay around for months or even years
The biological parameters estimated from COVID-19 confirmed cases and tabulated in Table 1 to assess the dynamics of novel COVID-19 pandemic in KSA
We established a mathematical model for the understanding the corona virus infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through a frac tional mathematical model in Caputo sense
Summary
The fatal disease called a coronavirus (COVID-19) has grown beyond the expectation of everyone and seems to stay around for months or even years. The rapid spread of the virus with a high level of severity has become an unprecedented threat for the public health. To understand the mechanism of this virus and its possible eliminations, the researchers and scientists are looking to discover some treatments and vaccinations for its eliminations. The source of transmission is mainly through the droplets and person to person contact. To reduce the infection spread, the wearing of mask, stay at home, social distancing and wash the hands regularly are the highly recommended. Still the coronavirus infection spreading and according to the recent updates, over 20.2 million are infected with 787,909 deaths globally so far [20,13]
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