Dynamics of electoral expenditure and the ‘arms race’ thesis: The case of New South Wales

Abstract

Calls for increased regulation are sometimes made in response to what is dubbed an ‘arms race’ in elections – a cost explosion in electoral expenditure driven by the competitive dynamics of elections. In 2010, New South Wales (NSW) adopted the first comprehensive caps on electoral expenditure in Australia on this basis. This paper examines the evidence for a cost explosion over the course of three NSW elections (1999–2007). It finds a significant but unevenly distributed increase in electoral expenditure – over 3 per cent per annum over and above inflation and the growth in voter population. In terms of explaining this spending increase, it finds a close relationship between electoral expenditure and the availability of campaign funds but a less clear one between such expenditure and the ‘winnability’ of the elections.由于选举中发生的“军备竞赛”——选举的你追我赶造成选举成本的暴增——人们呼吁加强管制。2010年，新南威尔士对选举开销出台了封顶的详细规定，在澳大利亚尚属首次。本文考察了新南威尔士三个选举过程（1999—2007）中成本激增的情况。作者发现选举开销重要但分布不规则的增长——高于通货膨胀及选民增长百分之三。如何解释选举开销的增长呢？作者发现选举开销与选举资金获得的难易程度关系密切，而与选举获胜机会的大小的关系模糊。