Abstract
Research background: Commercial real estate segments have reacted differently to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, announced early last year. Thus, the greatest interest is represented by commercial, service and warehouse real estate. The retail segment seriously felt the restrictions in the work of retail and service enterprises from March to July 2020 – due to the rotation of operators, the departure of many players from the market, the vacancy rate of space increased, the average rental rate decreased due to the revision of lease agreements. Warehouse real estate, on the contrary, has received incentives for development due to a twofold increase in online trade in Russia – the vacancy rate in the most high-quality areas tends to 0-2%, the average rental rate is growing rapidly. Purpose of the article: to analyze the commercial real estate market in the context of retail and warehouse real estate in the regions of Russia and St. Petersburg, to develop mechanisms to increase their competitiveness in the postcovid period. Methods: description, comparison, analogy, generalization and correlation and regression analysis. Findings & Value added: there is a high dependence of the current state of retail and warehouse real estate on the growing volumes of online trade, which causes certain trends: the growth of the shortage of warehouse space and the increase in the vacancy rate of retail space-mechanisms have been developed to increase the competitiveness of commercial real estate operators in St. Petersburg and the regions
Highlights
At the current stage, commercial real estate is faced with an unprecedented set of macroeconomic factors affecting the dynamics of commercial real estate development, such as the coronavirus pandemic announced by WHO in early 2020, and the subsequent restrictions on the operation of trade and service enterprises, an unstable situation with prices for Russia's main export commodity - oil, the dynamics of the exchange rate of the national currency, affecting the general dynamics of the development of commercial real estate, the main purpose of which is to generate profit from operating activities (Pirogova et al, 2019)
The retail segment seriously felt the restrictions in the work of retail and service enterprises from March to July 2020 – due to the rotation of operators, the departure of many players from the market, the vacancy rate of space increased, the average rental rate decreased due to the revision of lease agreements
On the contrary, has received incentives for development due to a twofold increase in online trade in Russia – the vacancy rate in the most high-quality areas tends to 0-2%, the average rental rate is growing rapidly
Summary
Commercial real estate is faced with an unprecedented set of macroeconomic factors affecting the dynamics of commercial real estate development, such as the coronavirus pandemic announced by WHO in early 2020, and the subsequent restrictions on the operation of trade and service enterprises, an unstable situation with prices for Russia's main export commodity - oil, the dynamics of the exchange rate of the national currency, affecting the general dynamics of the development of commercial real estate, the main purpose of which is to generate profit from operating activities (Pirogova et al, 2019). The retail real estate segment was negatively affected by work restrictions; the vacancy rate in 2020 increased compared to previous years because tenants were not physically able to fulfill their obligations (Yoshida, 2020; Skribans, et al, 2020). In this regard, the relevance of forecasting the commercial real estate market is increasing in order to identify "pain points" that stop growth, and possible drivers that would allow the objects of retail and warehouse real estate to acquire competitive advantages. Purpose of the study: to propose ways to increase the competitiveness of commercial real estate on the basis of forecasting the dynamics of the development of the retail and warehouse real estate market in the regions of Russia
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