Dynamics of Coalition Preferences and Vote Choices

Abstract

Abstract With more parties in parliament, coalition politics became much more complex in Germany. Against this background, the chapter analyzes the dynamics of coalition preferences and vote choices in Germany between 2009 and 2017. It registers a considerable amount of stability of coalition preferences. Apparently, coalitions were an important political object for voters, to which they related consistently even in times of a rapidly changing political environment. In addition, the chapter also finds that coalition preferences had an independent effect on vote choices in each of the three elections. Using long-term tracking surveys as well as panel data, the analysis reveals a surprising long-term stability of coalition effects. While most studies attribute coalition effects on electoral choices to instrumental motivations of voters, the chapter argues that the stability of coalition voting cannot be accounted for without also acknowledging the non-instrumental or expressive motivations of voters.