Dynamics of Childbearing Statistics in Twentieth Century Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

The paper presents the dynamics of childbearing indices in the twentieth century for 23 developing and 35 developed countries. The childbearing process over time is measured by projected ages at first and last birth, and length of reproductive life span, using the model derived by Home, El-Khorazaty, and Suchindran (1990). A time series for each of the three childbearing indices for each country is obtained, using only data on age-specific fertility rates. Two distinct general patterns characterizing childbearing transition are identified, according to variations over time of each index, which simultaneously reflect changes in fertility levels. Future childbearing behavior is forecasted to the year 2000 using ARIMA time series modeling.