Dynamics changes and prediction of ecosystem services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western China

Abstract

As an important ecological security barrier and a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, assessing ecosystem services (ESs) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over long time series is of great significance. In this study, we quantified and analyzed the ESs of the QTP based on modeling combined with multivariate data. The results showed that habitat quality, water conservation, carbon storage and soil retention on the QTP from 1985 to 2020 were generally positive, and the quality of ESs and the distribution of cold hot spots were spatially consistent. The conservation of forest, shrub and grassland on the QTP contributed to the improvement of ESs. The supply capacity of ESs was higher in the southeastern part of the QTP while the areas with higher demand were located in the northeast. Based on quadrant division, it was found that the mismatch between supply and demand of ESs on the QTP was mainly "low supply and low demand" and "high supply and low demand". From 2020–2050, ESs on the QTP show varying degrees of increase under all scenarios, with greater changes in ESs under the SSP3–7.0 scenario and the slowest growth in ESs under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.