Dynamics and risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 in urban areas: a geographical assessment on Kolkata Municipal Corporation, India

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has been transmitted and outbreak took place in India during the last week before nationwide 1st lockdown took place. Urban areas found more vulnerable and reported nearly 65% of cases during every phase of lockdown. Mumbai, among four metropolitan cities found huge number of containment zones with nearly 30% of SARS-CoV-2 cases indicating clustering of cases. Most of the containment zones of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Kolkata Municipal Corporation found a significant relation with slum areas. The study primarily tries considering the nature of SARS-CoV-2 cases in different urban centres with the help of cartographic techniques. AHP method has been used to determine the factors responsible for such concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases with vulnerability assessment (exposure, sensitivity and resilience) and risks. Before nationwide lockdown starts, the share of urban centres found 25% which has been transformed into nearly 60% at the end of 3rd phase of lockdown. Growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 cases found very high for Chennai and Thane with less number of doubling time to nation. Slum concentration and containment density shows a higher degree of correlation in Kolkata Municipal Corporation. Risk map also shows the concentration of cases in central and north Kolkata with higher degree of diseases exposure and sensitivity. Control measures must be taken by the central and state Government to minimise the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 mainly urban areas. As urban area contributing a higher share of SARS-CoV-2 cases, a proper management plan must be enforce.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s41324-020-00354-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.