Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure and Intensity Change

Abstract

Abstract : A long-term goal of this research is to improve dynamical prediction of tropical cyclones using ensemble methods for making analyses and forecasts. A second goal is to use the information contained in ensemble analyses and forecasts to improve basic understanding of tropical cyclone dynamics. Finally, a third goal is to use ensemble-based sensitivity analysis to target observations for tropical cyclone predictability and to assess the impact of observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. Specific objectives organize around the challenge of informing dynamical forecasts with observational information in tropical cyclone environments. Since these environments are atypical, traditional methods for constructing analyses from observations do not perform well. Ensemble methods naturally account for these atypical environments, and offer the opportunity for a leap forward in tropical cyclone forecast skill. Our main objective is to explore the utility of ensemble Kalman filters for creating analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones, including genesis, intensity change, and extratropical transition. A secondary objective is to understand the intrinsic variability of tropical cyclones in the absence of environmental forcing.