Dynamics and drivers of land cover change in the Afroalpine vegetation belt: Abune Yosef mountain range, Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a global concern because it could lead to the loss of biodiversity and negatively impact ecosystem services and functions, and has an important contribution to climate change. LULC change dynamics and their driving factors are not uniform globally and locally which makes decision making uncertain. This study seeks to quantify the extent of LULC change in Abune Yosef mountain range. To do this, we conducted a supervised classification using maximum likelihood classifier of 2 Landsat images from 1986 to 2017. Ground reference points and aerial photographs were used for accuracy assessment. Results revealed that the area of Afroalpine grassland has declined by −64.76%, from 10, 500 ha to 3700 ha. Other declines were seen in grazing land (−72.15%, 5900 ha), open woodland from (−100%, 3900 ha), and shrubland (−7.04%, 2500 ha). On the other hand, agricultural land area has increased from 38,300 to 48,700 ha (+ 27.15%), barren land from 5400 to 8900 ha (+ 64.81%), rivers, riverbeds, and gullies from 1100 to 3700 (+ 236.56%), plantation forests from 2500 to 4700 ha (+ 88%), and urban settlements from 300 to 500 ha (+ 66.66%). The main drivers of substantial LULC change were identified as increased human population pressure, and temperature and precipitation variability accompanied by the absence of land use policy. Policy developers, decision makers, and local communities may refer this study to develop land use policy, conservation planning, and prioritization to ensure sustainable resource utilization.