Abstract
H7N9 virus in the environment plays a role in the dynamics of avian influenza A (H7N9). A nationwide poultry vaccination with H7N9 vaccine program was implemented in China in October of 2017. To analyze the effect of vaccination and environmental virus on the development of avian influenza A (H7N9), we establish an avian influenza A (H7N9) transmission model with vaccination and seasonality among human, birds, and poultry. The basic reproduction number for the prevalence of avian influenza is obtained. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the existence of positive periodic solution are proved by the comparison theorem and the asymptotic autonomous system theorem. Finally, we use numerical simulations to demonstrate the theoretical results. Simulation results indicate that the risk of H7N9 infection is higher in colder environment. Vaccinating poultry can significantly reduce human infection.
Highlights
The avian influenza virus does not infect human
H5N1, H7N4, H7N7, H7N9, H9N2, and other avian influenza viruses with pathogenicity have great potential threat to human
Avian influenza is the potential threat to human health
Summary
In 1997, Hong Kong reported for the first time 18 cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H5N1), of which 6 cases died. Li et al [17] established an avian influenza A (H7N9) dynamics model with different groups in specific environment and studied the transmission of H7N9 avian influenza in the epidemic-prone areas, which reflected the impact of farms, live-poultry markets, and wet markets. The direct contact transmission between birds and poultry is very little and the cross infection between them happens through H7N9 virus carried in coexistence environment. The high-risk humans infected with avian influenza virus are mainly concentrated on humans who are often in contact with poultry, including slaughter, breeding, processing, trafficking in poultry, and low immunity groups. The numerical simulations used to illustrate the theoretical results and some conclusions are included in Sections 5 and 6
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