Dynamical variations of the terrestrial water cycle components and the influences of the climate factors over the Aral Sea Basin through multiple datasets

Abstract

Assessments of the regional terrestrial water variabilities are important for improving our knowledges of the complex hydroclimate system and providing scientific information in regional water resource management under a changing environment due to climate change and intensified human activities. The Aral Sea Basin has experienced a serious ecological crisis which is majorly caused by the water resources due to the excessive water utilization. Therefore, in this study, we examine the long-term linear trend and variability of the terrestrial water cycle components based on multiple datasets over the Aral Sea Basin during 2003–2016. The terrestrial water cycle components include precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), terrestrial water storage change (TWSC), runoff (R), soil moisture (SM) and groundwater. Major results show that increased trends of the annual precipitation and ET are observed during 2003–2016. For TWSA, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived datasets have significantly decreased trends with the values from −0.47 mm/mon to −0.29 mm/mon which reveal the serious terrestrial water depletion. Runoff, soil moisture and groundwater have the decreasing linear trends derived from multiple datasets. For the impacts of the climate factors on TWSA and TWSC, precipitation is the main climate factor with the significantly positive impacts. These results help us to have a better understanding of the complex hydrological process over the Aral Sea Basin, and provide a reliable scientific basic for police maker in the water resource management to achieve a sustainable development goal over the regions of the One Belt and One Road.