Dynamical theory driven observational analysis of ENSO modes in the equatorial Pacific

Abstract

The dynamics of tropical Pacific sea surface height changes associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been explored using a melding of a simple dynamical model and maximum covariance analysis (MCA). Two dominant MCA modes, which are degenerate and well correlated at a lag of about 4 months, have a combined time series which is strongly correlated with the Nino3.4 ENSO index. The leading Equatorial Mode shows a strong equatorial signature and is associated with Kelvin wave forcing, Ekman pumping, the wind stress curl, and the Recharge Oscillator hypothesis. The lagging East/West Mode shows a less equatorially trapped east/west pattern of variation and is most associated with zonal wind stress and the Delayed Oscillator hypothesis. The net effect of internal equatorial Rossby waves is dissipative and is not confined to the western boundary. The relevant zonal stress and stress curl fields stretch across the basin. Additional analyses show that both the zonal wind stress and the wind stress curl terms are required for the development of classic ENSO events. Removal of either term gives rise to weaker events, which have properties similar to the central Pacific ENSO events. The seasonal phase-locking of ENSO events is shown to be related to a north to south excursion of wind stress anomalies.