Dynamical forecasting of mesoscale fronts and eddies for acoustical applications

Abstract

Real-time nowcasts and forecasts of oceanic mesoscale fields (velocity, pressure, temperature, sound speed, etc.) are now feasible and have been initiated in selected regions. Predicting the “internal weather of the sea” is analogous to meterological weather forecasting. Our approach is based on recent progress in phenomenological knowledge and modeling capabilities and is systematic [A. R. Robinson, “Predicting open ocean currents, fronts, and eddies,” in Three-Dimensional Ocean Models of Marine and Estuarine Dynamics, edited by Nihoul and Jamart (Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1987)]; i.e., it combines dynamical model [A. R. Robinson and L. J. Walstad, “The Harvard open ocean model,” J. Appl. Numer. Math 3 (1987)] and observational estimates via data assimilation methods. The prediction problem will be overviewed, results from an ongoing forecast scheme for the Gulf Stream (gulfcasting) will be presented, the coupling of dynamical and acoustical models will be discussed, and preliminary results from a coupled system will be presented.