Abstract
Abstract Early results are presented of an experimental program in Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting at the National Meteorological Center. The primary objective of this program is to assess the feasibility of extending operational numerical weather prediction beyond the medium range to the monthly outlook problem. Additionally, the extended integrations provide greater insight into systematic errors and climate drift and thereby feedback to model development. In this paper the principal focus is upon assessment of a contiguous set of 108 thirty-day integrations generated with the then operational Medium Range Forecast model from initial conditions 24 hours apart between 14 December 1986 and 31 March 1987. Results indicate some serious model deficiencies such as the tendency for zonalization, i.e., systematically stronger midlatitude zonal flow than observed, and a stratospheric cold bias, which continues to grow through the 30--day integrations. In the 1–30 day mean Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height f...
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