Abstract
In this study, variations of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature (expressed as Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin) over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were dynamically downscaled through regional climate simulations. How the regional climate would increase in response to global warming was subsequently revealed. Specifically, the Regional Climatic Model (RegCM) was undertaken to downscale the boundary conditions of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model Version 2M (GFDL-ESM2M) over the Prairie Provinces. Daily temperatures (i.e., Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin) were subsequently extracted from the historical and future climate simulations. Temperature variations in the two future periods (i.e., 2036 to 2065 and 2065 to 2095) are then investigated relative to the baseline period (i.e., 1985 to 2004). The spatial distributions of temperatures were analyzed to reveal the regional impacts of global warming on the provinces. The results indicated that the projected changes in the annual averages of daily temperatures would be amplified from the southwest in the Rocky Mountain area to the northeast in the prairie region. It was also suggested that the projected temperature averages would be significantly intensified under RCP8.5. The projected temperature variations could provide scientific bases for adaptation and mitigation initiatives on multiple sectors, such as agriculture and economic sectors over the Canadian Prairies.
Highlights
The results show that the projections in the period of 2036 to 2065 under RCP8.5 are similar to those under RCP4.5
Fects.The projected results of temperature variations reveal that increases in the annual averages of daily temperatures would be intensified from the southwest in the Rocky
The projected results of temperature variations reveal that increases in the annual averages of study, daily temperatures would be intensified the southwest in the Rocky
Summary
Assessment of climate change impacts is needed to support adaptation and mitigation strategies [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. Such impacts are commonly investigated based on future climate projections simulated by global climate models (GCMs) under multiple scenarios [10,11,12,13]. The mechanisms and processes of climate change at regional scales cannot be comprehensively reflected by these coarse-resolution projections [14,15,16,17,18]
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