Abstract
Many countries in the world have been experiencing widely varying rates of change in their carbon intensity (CI) of economic output. The dynamic trend of CI in this research is measured by the progress ratio (PR) from an experience curve (EC) involving 127 countries during the period of 1980–2011. The overall average PR of 88.8% estimated for the total group of 127 indicates a decreasing trend of carbon intensity. This means that each doubling of the cumulative CO2 emission by this group has reduced carbon intensity by 11.2%. While a majority of 83 countries experienced a decreasing trend with an average PR of 73.1%, the remaining 44 countries have experienced an increasing trend with an average PR of 114.5%. When two different types of EC, classical and kinked, were applied, 73 countries displayed a kinked slope with an average PR of 73.4%, and 54 countries displayed a classical slope with an average PR of 104.2%. Examination of the type of trend and slope of EC suggests the chance of a major improvement of the future CI in the following order: (1) the 35 countries with a classical slope and an increasing trend of CIs; (2) the nine countries with a kinked slope and an increasing trend of CIs; (3) the 19 countries with a classical slope and a decreasing trend of CIs; and (4) the 64 countries with a kinked slope and a decreasing trend of CIs. Further implications from these findings are discussed.
Highlights
An increase of carbon emission in the world has continued each year, from the 22.7 billion tons of CO2 emitted in 1990 to the 36.3 billion tons in 2014
China—which generated the largest amount of CO2 emissions—is ranked 43rd with a progress ratio (PR) of 76.2%, while the United States—which generated the second largest emissions—is ranked 36th with a PR of 72.7%
For the United States, each doubling of cumulative CO2 emissions has reduced CO2 emissions by 27.3% per constant unit dollar of GDP produced in the United States
Summary
An increase of carbon emission in the world has continued each year, from the 22.7 billion tons of CO2 emitted in 1990 to the 36.3 billion tons in 2014. By 2015, India’s output of 2.5 billion tons was nearly twice that of Japan’s output of 1.3 billion tons These examples indicate that many countries in the world have changed their emission output rankings during the same period because of different rates of emission experienced by countries. By analyzing the CI trend of 127 countries from 1980 to 2011, this study provides a comprehensive picture covering the countries that used to be either excluded or classified as RoW (Rest of World) [3] Those studies focusing on the direction and speed of the CI change (examining the long-term CI trend) typically measure the CI change with a simple averaged annual rate [3].
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