Abstract
AbstractMost research on travel time reliability (TTR) is from the perspective of the road managers. Therefore, dynamic TTR from the view of road users is proposed. The concept considers the influence of random road network variations on road users. Two dimensions of travel time distribution and its temporal-spatial characteristic are analyzed. Based on daily variation reliability and assumptions of normal distribution of travel time and given threshold value, the influencing factors are studied according to its probability density distribution function. A TTR index is then proposed. Link and route TTRs are computed with the index, and the dynamic TTR of urban road networks is calculated and investigated. Three methods are adopted separately to compute the route TTR on a test road network. The traditional method is flawed, whereas the presented reliability index method and Monte Carlo method can obtain comparable results. Therefore, the validity of the reliability index method is verified.
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