Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Hemorraghic Fever and Climate Variability Patterns in Depok and Bogor

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become an endemic in major cities in Indonesia. Climate change, and poor level of awareness and knowledge of the community in Indonesia causes the case of DHF to continue to exist and it tends to increase. In the extraordinary events in 2015 the morbidity rate reached 50.75. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction in 1996 stated that the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia will increase threefold from 2070, if the environment and community conditions do not change. This study aims to produce a system dynamics model with ecological analysis to determine the dynamics of the DHF incidence with climate variability patterns in Depok and Bogor. The design of this study is ecologic study with hypothesis test, modeling, simulation, and intervention. Interviews with respondents include the level of knowledge, attitudes, and behavior (PSP) of the community. Measurement of climate factor includes rainfall, temperature, humidity, and CO2 level in the ambient environment. The results of DHF system dynamics model simulation show the program intervention scenario that has the most significant effect on the decline of Breeding Places and the decrease of DHF cases by increasing the participation of the community to actively control water places that are potential for mosquito breeding places.