Dynamic systems simulation analysis: A planning tool for the new century

Abstract

Dynamic systems simulation analysis is an analytical technique that allows for the modeling of complex, nonlinear systems. While this technique is currently not widely used in the social sciences or in criminal justice planning, the author argues that more attention should be given to these models in criminal justice. These models can be used in a variety of ways—to gain greater insight into processes of system change, to track the development of specific system populations (e.g., drug offenders, elderly offenders), and to estimate projected system growth and change over a variety of legislative and policy scenarios—making them useful tools for theoretical development and policy evaluation, as well as more pragmatic considerations such as program, facilities, and overall system planning. An overview of the methodology and some examples of analyses are presented.