Dynamic System Model to Predict Global Sea-Level Rise and Temperature Change

Abstract

Climate-change-based global sea-level rise is of concern because it contributes to significant loss of coastal wetlands and mangroves and to increasing damage from coastal flooding in many regions of the world. Physical mechanisms that describe the dynamic global climate systems and the effect of this system behavior on sea-level rise are inherently complex. In this study, conducted using systematic analysis of historic data on temperature change and sea-level rise, a linear dynamic system model is proposed to predict global sea-level rise and mean surface temperatures. Unlike the semiempirical approaches proposed in the recent literature, this model incorporates the inherent interaction between temperature and sea-level rise into the model. The resulting model, recognized from the historic data, shows that the rate of sea-level rise is proportional to temperature, and this rise is also a function of the temporal state of the sea level. Similarly, the rate of temperature change is a function of the temporal state of the temperature and is also affected by the sea-level rise. The proposed model is also used to predict the sea-level rise during the 21st century. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000447. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers. CE Database subject headings: Climate change; Sea level; Temperature effects; Dynamic models; Predictions. Author keywords: Climate change; Complex systems; Sea-level rise; Temperature change; Dynamic model.