Dynamic speculation and efficiency in European natural gas markets during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crises

Abstract

Efficiency and dynamic speculation literature focused on financial and crude oil markets whereas empirical studies on natural gas markets are limited. This study examines market efficiency and dynamic speculation in major European natural gas hubs (the Zeebrugge (ZEE) hub of Belgium, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub of the Netherlands, and National Balancing Point (NBP) hub of the UK) during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Using the Asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MFDFA) and the power law exponent (PLE) approach, we show that European natural gas markets exhibit an asymmetric multifractal behavior and long-memory effects, with variations observed during crises. The ZEE hub in Belgium and the NBP hub in the UK demonstrate a higher multifractality under different trends during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, respectively. Notably, the TTF hub in the Netherlands emerges as the most efficient market during all subperiods. Moreover, our results, using the PLE approach, suggest that European gas market inefficiencies during crises can be attributed to speculative strategies that create self-perpetuating dynamics and diminish market transparency, leading to heightened risk and volatility in gas prices. Our findings underscore the need for regulatory intervention to mitigate excessive speculation and enhance transparency in gas markets. Diversifying gas supplies and fortifying European gas hubs emerge as pivotal strategies to bolster resilience and stability during crises.