Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist. Recent analyses suggest that global trade and climate change could lead to the re-establishment of Ae. aegypti across the country and promote the spread of dengue nationally. This study aimed to describe the dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported DF cases and their origins, identify the current and potential future high-risk regions and locate areas that might be at particular risk of dengue transmission should competent mosquito vectors expand their range. Our results showed that the geographical distribution of imported DF cases has significantly expanded in mainland Australia over the past decade. In recent years, the geographical distribution of source countries of DF has expanded from the Pacific region and Asia to include Africa and the Americas. Australia is now exposed to dengue importations from all of the regions involved in the current global pandemic. The public health implications of a range expansion of dengue mosquito vectors are severe. Enhanced mosquito surveillance in those areas that have high imported cases is called for to reduce emerging threats from this globally expanding pathogen.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist
Recorded dengue fever (DF) incidences were much higher than current dengue incidence in Australia including major outbreaks in Charters Towers in 1897 and in Brisbane in 1905; and high mortalities associated with dengue haemorrhagic fever were reported during this period[7]
Spatial clusters of high imported DF risk were identified for the purpose of highlighting areas at particular risk of dengue epidemics in Australia and those that might be most threatened by expansions in the ranges of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus
Summary
Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist. Globalization and climate change have been implicated in the expanding geographic ranges of both dengue virus and dengue vector mosquitoes. Recorded DF incidences were much higher than current dengue incidence in Australia including major outbreaks in Charters Towers in 1897 and in Brisbane in 1905; and high mortalities associated with dengue haemorrhagic fever were reported during this period[7]. These records demonstrate the extensive range that was suitable for dengue transmission in Australia’s recent past. The spatial distribution of imported DF cases by country of acquisition during 2004–2013 in Australia[36]
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