Abstract
BackgroundThis study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering and socio-environmental factors associated with dengue fever (DF) incidence rates at street level in Guangzhou city, China.MethodsSpatiotemporal scan technique was applied to identify the high risk region of DF. Multiple regression model was used to identify the socio-environmental factors associated with DF infection. A Poisson regression model was employed to examine the spatiotemporal patterns in the spread of DF.ResultsSpatial clusters of DF were primarily concentrated at the southwest part of Guangzhou city. Age group (65+ years) (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.13 to 2.03), floating population (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.15), low-education (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.16) and non-agriculture (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.11) were associated with DF transmission. Poisson regression results indicated that changes in DF incidence rates were significantly associated with longitude (β = -5.08, P<0.01) and latitude (β = -1.99, P<0.01).ConclusionsThe study demonstrated that social-environmental factors may play an important role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. As geographic range of notified DF has significantly expanded over recent years, an early warning systems based on spatiotemporal model with socio-environmental is urgently needed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of dengue control and prevention.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) is a widespread vector-borne viral infectious disease which has a rapidly increase in infections, geographic distribution, and the severity cases[1]
This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering and socio-environmental factors associated with dengue fever (DF) incidence rates at street level in Guangzhou city, China
Age group (65+ years) (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.13 to 2.03), floating population (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.15), low-education (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.16) and non-agriculture (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.11) were associated with DF transmission
Summary
Dengue fever (DF) is a widespread vector-borne viral infectious disease which has a rapidly increase in infections, geographic distribution, and the severity cases[1]. DF has re-emerged in China in 1978, from its first appearance in Foshan city of Guangdong province and subsequently it has been reported in other areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi province and Hainan island after 32 years [6]. DF outbreak and epidemics were reported every year affecting several thousands of people, predominantly in the southeast coastal regions including Hainan, Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang and Yunnan provinces [7]. Vector-borne scientists have predicted that DF could potentially become an endemic disease in China [9]. In 2014, a large outbreak with more than 37,000 cases has occurred in Guangzhou city [10]. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering and socio-environmental factors associated with dengue fever (DF) incidence rates at street level in Guangzhou city, China.
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