Dynamic Spatial Analysis of Economic Performance on Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in the Greater Bay Area Considering Mediating Effects

Abstract

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the regions with the strongest economic vitality in China. This study explores the nonlinear effect of economic performance on urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCC) in the 11 GBA cities for the period 2004–2016. In doing so, we employ static and dynamic spatial panel econometric models to investigate the nonlinear relationship of the economic-UCC nexus and explore the mediating effect of technology innovation and energy consumption. Results confirm the inverted U-shaped relationship of GDP per capita and UCC in the contexts of geographic, economic, and economic-geographic matrices, respectively. External capital shows a promoting effect on UCC while the opposite holds for share of manufacturing sector to the economy. This study verifies that technology innovation and energy consumption are important intermediate variables. Innovation shows a positive spatial spillover effect that helps to improve the UCC level of neighboring cities, while energy consumption has a negative spillover effect. Therefore, this study explores the nonlinear effect of economic growth on environmental pressure in the GBA. The significant roles of technology innovation and energy consumption are illustrated. The spatial spillover effect in GBA cities is confirmed. The final section outlines proposals for policy recommendations to improve UCC, to ensure continuous growth of the economy, and to introduce environmentally friendly technologies.