Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Abstract

Abstract Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.