Dynamic Rupture Models for the Southern San Andreas Fault

Abstract

Abstract Dynamic rupture, and resultant ground motions up to 0.25 Hz, are simulated for an M w 7.6 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. Spontaneous rupture is modeled with slip-weakening friction, and 3D viscoelastic wave solutions are computed with a support-operator numerical method. The initial traction model is derived from inversions of the M w 7.3 1992 Landers strong ground-motion records, and borrows heavily from that used for the TeraShake2 simulations by Olsen et al. (2008). Heterogeneity in the traction model leads to focusing of the rupture front, and the focusing produces cases of supershear rupture velocity in asperities (areas of high initial traction), as well as cases of high peak slip rate and cohesive zone contraction in antiasperities. Separate solutions are computed for version 3.0 and 4.0, respectively, of the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model (SCEC-CVM). We also compare the case of a flat ground surface (a common simplification made for finite-difference simulations) to the case of the ground surface conformed to regional topography. The overall distribution of simulated ground motion intensity is consistent with that derived from the empirical model of Campbell and Bozorgnia (2008), in the sense that the bulk of simulated pseudospectral velocity (PSV) values are within the 68% confidence intervals of the empirical model. Simulated PSVs corresponding to low probability in the empirical model are principally associated with basin wave-guide and directivity effects. An important example, first identified by the TeraShake1 simulations (Olsen et al. , 2006), is the stronger than expected ground motions at the site of Montebello due to a basin wave-guide effect. We find that this effect is lessened for version 4.0 of the SCEC-CVM, relative to version 3.0, due to a shallower model for the Chino basin.