Dynamic risk assessment of oil spill scenario for Three Gorges Reservoir in China based on numerical simulation

Abstract

A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area.