Dynamic risk assessment of oil and gas leakage in heating furnace: A DBT-DBN approach

Abstract

The heating furnace has dynamic fluctuations of hazard factors in the actual circumstance and is the core equipment of hydrocracking unit, which is the main equipment of petrochemical enterprises. Owing to the limitation of conventional risk analysis approaches, a dynamic risk analysis approach based on dynamic Bow-tie model(short for DBT) and dynamic Bayesian network(short for DBN) was proposed. Taking the failure accident of oil and gas leakage of heating furnace as a case study, the timing sequence of equipment failure of heating furnace is analyzed first, the risk evolution process is obtained, and the dynamic tie model of accident is established. By mapping the dynamic tie model to the dynamic Bayesian network, the risk factors of oil and gas leakage in heating furnace are deduced in two-way reasoning. The dynamic risk trend of heating furnace was predicted eventually, the probability of oil and gas leakage caused by heating furnace is about 1.26E-07 after two year. Through diagnostic reasoning, 6 key factors and 3 accident paths were determined. The results are in accordance with the actual situation, proving that DBT-DBN model can effectively reflect the dynamic characteristics of accident scenarios and provide reference for the risk assessment of petrochemical enterprises.