Dynamic risk assessment method for road transport of hazardous chemicals based on BP neural network algorithm

Abstract

To achieve a dynamic comprehensive risk assessment of road transport of hazardous chemicals, this paper first collected 213 road transport accidents involving hazardous chemicals that occurred between 2015 and 2020 to build a case library. Then, it established a risk assessment system (including 9 primary indicators and 28 secondary indicators) based on the frequencies of reasons for accident cases and explored the quantification methods for indicators based on their definitions. Subsequently, this paper calculated the weights of indicators based on the backpropagation neural network algorithm and the data in the case library and formulated a model for dynamic risk assessment of road transport of hazardous chemicals. The model takes into account the impact of comprehensive indicators such as drivers, vehicles, goods, roads, and the environment. The accuracy of the model calculation results is 93%. Eventually, the study verified the model using simulation data in real scenarios. The validation results show that the model could achieve a dynamic comprehensive assessment of risks in road transport of hazardous chemicals.