Dynamic risk assessment framework for industrial systems based on accidents chain theory: The case study of fire and explosion risk of UHV converter transformer

Abstract

The development of technology leads to the increasing complexity and hugely loss of industrial system, so, it's necessary to assess the risk. This study established a framework for dynamic risk assessment (DRA) of industrial systems based on accidents chain theory, and quantitatively assess risk. In this framework, the theory of accidents chain was proposed, including the structural equation and basic relationships of accidents chain. The risk analysis model, including the risk of initial event, the node risk and the risk of the four interaction relations, was established. The concept and the model of dynamic risk change rate were put forward. In addition, a risk grade classification method was built for dynamic risk evaluation. The DRA framework can be used to construct the risk correlation between the subsystems of the industrial system, and classify the accidents risk involved in the accidents chain. This study took the fire and explosion risk of UHV converter transformer as an example to conduct case analysis. The results showed that the DRA framework proposed in this paper is effective and feasible, which provides basis for risk prevention and control and improves the safety protection level of UHV converter transformer.