Abstract
Dynamic risk assessment and early warning was one of the important means to ensure the security of oil terminals. This paper proposed a dynamic risk assessment and early warning model based on catastrophe theory, firstly established a risk evaluation index system for oil terminals. Then it divided the indicators into three categories based on the impact on the results, namely positive indicators, negative indicators and moderate indicators. According to these indicators, the nondimensional processing formula of each category was determined. In combination with catastrophe theory, the target index mutation membership function value was obtained based on a recursive calculation. Finally, the evaluation level of the target index was carried out. Sample data was used to verify the proposed model, and the results prove that the model could realize dynamic risk assessment and early warning.
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