Abstract
Preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates is one of the key factors for the success of offshore natural gas hydrates production test. In this paper, according to the operational process of preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates, the GO method model of the offshore natural gas hydrates depressurization production test process was established by using the DBN and the GO (DBN-GO) model, and it was mapped into the DBN model. Considering the influence of human factors in the operation process, the human reliability was modeled and analyzed by using combined weight method and fuzzy CREAM. In this paper, the performance of the equipment, operational risk and probability of hydrate secondary formation were analyzed. And the DBN model is verified by Petri net.
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