Dynamic response relationship between cultivated land marginalisation and rural labour out-migration in mountainous areas in China: evidence from a vector autoregressive model

Abstract

Understanding the dynamic interaction between cultivated land marginalisation (CLM) and rural labour out-migration (RLM) is vital for the sustainable utilisation of cultivated land, particularly in mountainous areas. Most previous research focused on unilateral CLM or RLM in mountainous areas, with limited research on the dynamic response between these two factors. To address this gap, we identified the characteristics of CLM and analysed the changing trends in RLM in 19 counties of western Hubei Province, China, from 2000 to 2018. The dynamic response relationship between the two phenomena was identified using a vector autoregressive model. CLM showed a volatile trend throughout the study area, with fluctuations most evident during 2004-2007 and 2009-2015. The rural labour population showed an inverted U-shaped trend with an increase during 2003-2015 and a decrease afterward, which is consistent with the trends in socioeconomic development. The dynamic response between the two factors showed large fluctuations in the short term but a stable relationship in the long term. These findings have important implications for differentiated land management, comprehensive land improvement, and rural land use policies and indicate that the added value of agricultural products from mountainous areas should be strengthened.