Dynamic Response of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Growth to Climate Change in the Three North Shelter Forest Region in China

Bin He,Honglin Wang,Qianfeng Wang,Aifang Chen

doi:10.3390/rs70809998

Abstract

Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm–wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.

Highlights

Beginning in 1978, the Chinese government launched ambitious afforestation programs such as theThree North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) to cope with environmental degradation and desertification [1]
We investigated the dynamics of the response of vegetation growth to climate change
The spatial distribution of linear trends in growing-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982–2011 are shown in Overall, vegetation in the study region increased over the study period

Summary

Introduction

Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) to cope with environmental degradation and desertification [1]. Control Program [2] and the Grain for Green Project [3], were implemented in this region. The rationale and effectiveness of these ecological restoration projects in arid and semiarid areas with fragile environments have been continuously debated [4,5,6]. Other authors have suggested that the importance of these projects has been overstated [1,9,10], noting that deserts have continued to expand and sandstorms have increased over recent years in the TNSFSP area [1]. Cao [1] warned that afforestation in arid and semiarid regions is likely to increase environmental degradation. With the acceleration of climate change, these restoration projects have become even more controversial

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion