Dynamic Reliability Evaluation for Integrated Modular Avionics System Based on Continuous Time Bayesian Network with Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

Abstract

In order to achieve dynamic reliability evaluation for integrated modular avionics electronic system scientifically and reasonably, this paper presents a comprehensive study on the dynamic reliability analysis method for integrated modular avionics system by utilizing the dynamic fault tree approach based on continuous time Bayesian Network(BN) with triangular fuzzy numbers, which is specific to the uncertainty such as fuzziness and stochastic existing in the evaluation process and dependency on experts' experience. Considering that a large number of redundant structures are adopted in the integrated modular avionics system, the modeling and analysis method based on continuous time BN is used for modeling the dynamic fault tree and assessment. On the other hand, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to characterize the basic failure rate parameters due to the lack of samples of large complex system and the difficulty in accurately estimating its failure parameters. The results show that the proposed method is more flexible and adaptive than conventional fault tree analysis for fault diagnosis and dynamic safety estimation of safety-critical avionics system.