Dynamic reliability analysis of slopes based on the probability density evolution method

Abstract

Earthquake ground motions display random behavior; therefore, it is necessary to investigate the seismic response of engineering structures using stochastic analysis methods. The probability density evolution method (PDEM) is applied in stochastic seismic response analysis and dynamic reliability evaluation of slope stability. Combining PDEM with finite-element dynamic time-series analysis, this study analyses the stochastic seismic response of a slope under random earthquake ground motion. Comparison between the results of the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and PDEM analysis demonstrates the effectiveness and high precision of the PDEM method. We assess the stability of the slope under earthquake conditions using the safety factor criterion to obtain the stability probability of the slope. Compared with traditional equilibrium methods, the reliability analysis can directly reflect the failure probability and degree of safety of the slope, demonstrating a novel approach to slope stability assessment using a random dynamic method.