Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria

Caroline Elliott,Goodness C. Aye,Prosper Ebruvwiyo Edoja,Orefi Abu

doi:10.1080/23322039.2016.1204809

Abstract

AbstractThe study analyzed the dynamic relationship among CO2 emission (CE), agricultural productivity (AGP), and food security (FS) in Nigeria. The study used annual time series data spanning from 1961 to 2010. Results based on Augmented Dickey and Fuller and Phillip and Perron tests showed that the series are integrated of order one, I(1). Johansen cointegration test was employed to examine the long run relationship. Results show there is no long run relationship among the three variables. Evidence based on the VAR estimates and the impulse response functions shows that there is a negative and significant short run relationship between CO2 and AGP and between CO2 and FS. Also the variance decomposition analyses showed that over time, CE contributed about 23 and 22 percent to the variation in AGP and FS, respectively. Further, analysis based on Granger causality test indicated that there was a unidirectional causality from CE to AGP and also from CE to FS. Policies that will assist in the mitigation of C...

Highlights

Nigeria has been predicted to be among the twenty most developed economies in the world by 2020
It is concluded that agricultural productivity (AGP), food security (FS), and CO2 emission (CE) are integrated of order one, I(1)
Conclusion and policy implications This study examined the dynamic relationship among CE, AGP, and FS in Nigeria

Summary

Introduction

Nigeria has been predicted to be among the twenty most developed economies in the world by 2020. Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] (2008) estimates indicated that the number of hungry and malnourished people due to insufficient food availability and lack of access to food, have increased from about 90 million in 1970 to about 225 million in 2008, and is projected to add over 100 million by 2015 This is so because, the Nigeria agriculture which as at the time she gained her political independence in 1960 was the dominant sector of the economy, contributing about 70 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), employing about the same percentage of the working population, and accounting for about 90 percent of foreign earning and federal government revenue (Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN], 2010), contributing 25 percent to the nation’s GDP between 1975 and 1979 and 40 percent as at 2013 (FININTEL, 2014) has nosedived. Between 1970 and 1982, agricultural production stagnated at less than 1percent annual growth rate, while there was a sharp decline in export crop production and food production increased only marginally at a time when the population growth rate was between 2.5 and 3.0 percent per annum (Kasozi, 2014)

Objectives

Results

Conclusion