DYNAMIC PROBALISTIC MODELING OF CRISES AND WAR

Abstract

During the past 50 years mathematics has provided a unique tool for the rational acquisition of new objective knowledge about war as a social phenomenon. Four discoveries are examined: the hyporeliability effect in deterrence systems aimed at war prevention, the N-crises problem of war escalation (originally conjectured by Q. Wright), a ledge of time at the onset of war, and a phenomenon called war dilation which explains the decreasing propensity of wars to terminate once they have begun. Though in different ways, each discovery exemplifies significant new aspects of war that would not have been discovered without the medium of mathematics.