Dynamic probabilistic design technique for multi-component system with multi-failure modes

Abstract

For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes, this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method (MERSM). MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method. The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components, and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained, based on thermal-structural coupling technique, by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow, gas temperature and rotational speed. The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa, and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa, respectively. Besides, gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system. Through the comparison of methods, it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk, and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design. The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.