Dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity: a case study on the Yellow River basin

Abstract

This study aimed to established the water resource carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin (YRB), China in respect to water quantity and quality to facilitate accurate prediction of changes in regional water resources carrying capacity and to formulate an optimal control plan based on the economic society-water resources-ecological environment mutual feedback mechanism. Various methods, including element diagnosis, identifying indicators of key drivers, integrating support vector machines and system dynamics were applied to establish a quantitative dynamic water resources carrying capacity simulation model for the YRB by formulating control objectives and analyzing the difficulty and cost of managing drivers of carrying capacity. The orthogonal test method was applied to improve the capacity and reduce load within the YRB. The six indicators of key drivers chosen were:① unconventional water utilization; ② seawater intake; ③ average irrigation water consumption; ④ irrigation area; ⑤ industrial value-added water consumption; ⑥ 10, 000 yuan industrial value-added water consumption. The simulation results showed that the upstream, middle and downstream areas of the YRB are currently in an overloaded or severely overloaded state at all planned levels before water transfer projects such as the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project become effective. The study identified the optimal control plan to avoid overloading of the annual water carrying capacity of the YRB at all levels and provides scientific guidance for water resources management of the YRB.