Dynamic potential-model-based feature for lane change prediction

Abstract

We propose a prediction method for lane changes in other vehicles. According to previous research, over 90 % of car crashes are caused by human mistakes, and lane changes are the main factor. Therefore, if an intelligent system can predict a lane change and alarm a driver before another vehicle crosses the center line, this can contribute to reducing the accident rate. The main contribution of this work is to propose a new feature describing the relationship of a vehicle to adjacent vehicles. We represent the new feature using a dynamic characteristic potential field that changes the distribution depending on the relative number of adjacent vehicles. The new feature addresses numerous situations in which lane changes are made. Adding the new feature can be expected to improve prediction performance. We trained the prediction model and evaluated the performance using a real traffic dataset with over 900 lane changes, and we confirmed that the proposed method outperforms previous methods in terms of both accuracy and prediction time.