Dynamic portfolio insurance strategy: a robust machine learning approach

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we propose a robust genetic programming (RGP) model for a dynamic strategy of stock portfolio insurance. With portfolio insurance strategy, we divide the money in a risky asset and a risk-free asset. Our applied strategy is based on a constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy. For determining the amount for investing in the risky asset, a critical parameter is a constant risk multiplier that is calculated in our proposed model using RGP to reflect market dynamics. Our model includes four main steps: (1) Selecting the best stocks for constructing a portfolio using a density-based clustering strategy. (2) Enhancing the robustness of our proposed model with an application of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) for forecasting the future prices of the selected stocks. The findings show that using ANFIS, instead of a regular multi-layer artificial neural network improves the prediction accuracy and our model’s robustness. (3) Implementing the RGP model for calculating the risk multiplier. Risk variables are used to generate equation trees for calculating the risk multiplier. (4) Determining the optimal portfolio weights of the assets using the well-known Markowitz portfolio optimization model. Experimental results show that our proposed strategy outperforms our previous model.