DYNAMIC OUTPUT RESPONSE REVISITED: THE INDIAN CASH CROPS

Abstract

Diverse instruments have been used to encourage developing agriculture. In the process, billions of dollars have been spent on providing incentives to peasants. Given scarce resources, an important concern has been the issue of what policy instruments to emphasize. In this regard, useful policy information can be gleaned from the role of expected profits (revenue and input prices), assets (irrigation and infrastructure), and relevant risks, in evoking peasant response. Using panel data for the period 1967/1968 to 1999/2000 pertaining to seven major Indian cash crops cultivated across 14 major states, we find strong evidence of a differential producer response in the post‐liberalization phase, although the important variables per se are much the same. Our results suggest that the preferred policy ought to emphasize availability of irrigation, affordable fertilizer, and rural infrastructure, rather than incessant increases in output prices.