Abstract
This paper investigated a time series export-base model of nonmetro-politan Nevada counties. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to bifurcate county employment, and county basic and nonbasic employment were tested for cointegration. Employing the Granger Representation Theorem, an error correction mechanism model was estimated. Error correction mechanism model forecasts were performed and long-run forecasts were evaluated. Given current microcomputer hardware and software, this paper provides a procedure to conduct dynamic rural impact analysis by employing a dynamic export-base model.
Highlights
Estimation of impacts from industrialization or changes in resource use provides important and useful information to state, local, and/or rural decision makers
The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) procedure to bifurcate total employment into basic and nonbasic employment is presented and basic and nonbasic employment are tested for stationarity and cointegration
For each of the five rural Nevada counties, the excess location quotient or Theil location quotient procedure derived the best estimation of nonbasic sector employment
Summary
Estimation of impacts from industrialization or changes in resource use provides important and useful information to state, local, and/or rural decision makers. Decision makers often rely on regional economic models to forecast important regional aggregates (employment, income, etc.) as well as to analyze potential consequences of adopting alternative economic development strategies or alternative public resource management policies. The adequacy of these models often is not challenged and may lead to erroneous policy decisions. Most impact models employ either export-base or input-output models to derive economic linkages and sectoral impacts from exogenous changes. Results from these models are comparative static in nature and do not show changes through time as derived from dynamic analysis
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
