Dynamic nomogram for long-term survival in patients with locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer after (chemo)radiotherapy.

Abstract

This study aimed to establish a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in oropharyngeal cancer patients treated with curative (chemo)radiotherapy. The dynamic nomogram was constructed on 273 patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated in a Tertiary Head and Neck Cancer Unit. The clinical features that were previously reported to be associated with OS were analyzed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. The nomogram incorporated three explanatory variables derived from a decision tree approach including HPV status, N classification according to 8th edition TNM and early response to (chemo)radiotherapy. The nomogram was capable to predict OS with a validation C-index of 0.768. The proposed stratification in risk groups allowed significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for OS outcome (p < 0.0001). The nomogram provided an accurate evaluation of OS for oropharyngeal cancer patients treated with curative (chemo)radiotherapy.